The day is here!

Best Picture

Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked

Winning the Palme d’Or last year in May made Anora the presumptive front-runner for much of the season, and though the comedy briefly seemed to be fading down the stretch, a pair of back-to-back trophies from the DGA and PGA revived its fortunes. Conclave’s journey mirrored the plot of the film: The papal drama lingered quietly in the background as other contenders got tarred by one scandal or another, then came on late by winning at BAFTA and SAG. An entertaining adult drama that’s liked by pretty much everyone, Conclave feels like a title that should benefit from the preferential ballot. However, while its strategy of being most voters’ No. 2 pick might have been enough to triumph in a world where it was up against The Brutalist, Anora feels equally suited to the preferential ballot. Sean Baker’s film got nominated in more major categories and seems to have more passion behind it, to boot. Anora may not look like a traditional Best Picture winner, but like its heroine, it’s got an underdog scrappiness that only adds to its charm.

Will win: Anora
Should win: I’m Still Here (the best of a weak bunch)

Best Director

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

Will win: Sean Baker, Anora
Should win: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Best Actor

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Will win: Chalamet
Should win: Domingo

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

Will win: Moore
Should win: Torres

Best Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Will win: Culkin
Should win: Culkin

Best Supporting Actress

Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Will win: Saldaña
Should win: Grande

Best Adapted Screenplay

A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing

Will win: Conclave
Should win: Nickel Boys

Best Original Screenplay

Anora
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
September 5
The Substance

Will win: Anora
Should win: A Real Pain

Best International Feature

Emilia Pérez, France
Flow, Latvia
The Girl With the Needle, Denmark
I’m Still Here, Brazil
The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Germany

Will win: Emilia Pérez
Should win: I’m Still Here

Best Documentary Feature

Black Box Diaries
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Soundtrack to a Coup D’Etat
Sugarcane

Will win: No Other Land
Should win: Sugarcane

Best Animated Feature

Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot

Will win: The Wild Robot
Should win: Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

Best Film Editing

Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Wicked

Will win: Conclave
Should win: The Brutalist

Best Original Song

“El Mal,” Emilia Pérez
“The Journey,” The Six Triple Eight
“Like a Bird,” Sing Sing
“Mi Camino,” Emilia Pérez
“Never Too Late,” Elton John: Never Too Late

Will win: “El Mal,” Emilia Pérez
Should win: None of these

Best Original Score

The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
The Wild Robot

Will win: The Brutalist
Should win: The Brutalist

Best Cinematography

The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Maria
Nosferatu

Will win: The Brutalist
Should win: Nosferatu

Best Costume Design

A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Wicked

Will win: Wicked
Should win: Wicked

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

A Different Man
Emilia Pérez
Nosferatu
The Substance
Wicked

Will win: The Substance
Should win: A Different Man

Best Production Design

The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Wicked

Will win: Wicked
Should win: The Brutalist

Best Sound

A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
The Wild Robot

Will win: A Complete Unknown
Should win: None of these

Best Visual Effects

Alien: Romulus
Better Man
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Wicked

Will win: Dune: Part Two
Should win: Better Man

Best Live-Action Short

A Lien
Anuja
I’m Not a Robot
The Last Ranger
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

Will win: A Lien
Should win: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

Best Animated Short

Beautiful Men
In the Shadow of the Cypress
Magic Candies
Wander to Wonder
Yuck!

Will win: Beautiful Men
Should win: Yuck!

Best Documentary Short

Death by Numbers
I Am Ready Warden
Incident
Instruments of a Beating Heart
The Only Girl in the Orchestra

Will win: The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Should win: I Am Ready Warden

Let’s see how we all did on Monday!

This article is part of a special year-long series of anecdotes, reflections and thoughts about the Academy Awards.