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Doug’s Fearless 2012 Tony Predictions

Below, my fearless predictions for the 2022 Tony Awards:

BEST MUSICAL

Girl from the North Country

MJ

Mr. Saturday Night

Paradise Square

Six

A Strange Loop

 

Will win: A Strange Loop

Should win: Girl from the North Country

 

BEST PLAY

Clyde’s by Lynn Nottage

Hangmen by Martin McDonagh

The Lehman Trilogy by Stefano Massini and Ben Power

The Minutes by Tracy Letts

Skeleton Crew by Dominique Morisseau

 

Will win: The Lehman Trilogy

Should win: The Minutes

 

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL

Caroline, or Change

Company

The Music Man

 

Will win: Company

Should win: Caroline, or Change

 

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY

American Buffalo

for colored girls who have considered suicide / when the rainbow is enuf

How I Learned to Drive

Take Me Out

Trouble in Mind

 

Will win: Take Me Out

Should win: How I Learned to Drive

 

BEST SCORE
Jason Robert Brown and Amanda Green, Mr. Saturday Night
Jason Howland, Nathan Tysen and Masi Asare, Paradise Square
Michael R. Jackson, A Strange Loop
Tom Kitt and Michael Korie, Flying Over Sunset
Toby Marlow and Lucy Moss, Six

Will win: A Strange Loop over Six

Should win: Flying Over Sunset

 

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL
Christina Anderson, Craig Lucas and Larry Kirwan, Paradise Square
Conor McPherson, Girl from the North Country
Billy Crystal, Lowell Ganz and Babaloo Mandel, Mr. Saturday Night
Michael R. Jackson, A Strange Loop
Lynn Nottage, MJ

Will win: Jackson

Should win: McPherson

 

BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Sharon D Clarke, Caroline, or Change
Carmen Cusack, Flying Over Sunset
Sutton Foster, The Music Man
Joaquina Kalukango, Paradise Square
Mare Winningham, Girl from the North Country

Will win: Kalukango (for a truly featured role)

Should win: All of the other nominees are top-tier, but Cusack truly gave all in Sunset

 

BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Billy Crystal, Mr. Saturday Night|
Myles Frost, MJ 
Hugh Jackman, The Music Man
Rob McClure, Mrs. Doubtfire
Jaquel Spivey, A Strange Loop

Will win: Spivey

Should win: Frost

 

BEST ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Gabby Beans, The Skin of Our Teeth
LaChanze, Trouble in Mind
Ruth Negga, Macbeth
Deirdre O’Connell, Dana H.
Mary-Louise Parker, How I Learned to Drive

Will win: Parker

Should win: O’Connell

 

BEST ACTOR IN A PLAY
Simon Russell Beale, The Lehman Trilogy
Adam Godley, The Lehman Trilogy
Adrian Lester, The Lehman Trilogy
David Morse, How I Learned to Drive
Sam Rockwell, American Buffalo
Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Lackawanna Blues
David Threlfall, Hangmen

Will win: Rockwell, over Beale

Should win: Morse

 

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Jeannette Bayardelle, Girl From The North Country
Shoshana Bean, Mr. Saturday Night
Jayne Houdyshell, The Music Man
L Morgan Lee, A Strange Loop
Patti LuPone, Company
Jennifer Simard, Company

Will win: LuPone (although there’s a teensy tiny chance Lee could win)

Should win: Simard

 

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Matt Doyle, Company
Sidney DuPont, Paradise Square
Jared Grimes, Funny Girl
John-Andrew Morrison, A Strange Loop
A.J. Shively, Paradise Square

Will win: Doyle

Should win: Shively (who is his show’s true lead – shhh, don’t tell)

 

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Uzo Aduba, Clyde’s
Rachel Dratch, POTUS
Kenita R. Miller, for colored girls…
Phylicia Rashad, Skeleton Crew
Julie White, POTUS
Kara Young, Clyde’s

Will win: Aduba

Should win: Dratch

 

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY
Alfie Allen, Hangmen
Chuck Cooper, Trouble in Mind
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Take Me Out
Ron Cephas Jones, Clyde’s
Michael Oberholtzer, Take Me Out
Jesse Williams, Take Me Out

Will win: Ferguson

Should win: Williams

 

BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL
Stephen Brackett, A Strange Loop
Marianne Elliott, Company
Conor McPherson, Girl from the North Country
Lucy Moss and Jamie Armitage, Six
Christopher Wheeldon, MJ 

Will win: Elliott (in a tight race over Brackett)

Should win: McPherson

 

BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY
Lileana Blain-Cruz, The Skin of Our Teeth
Camille A. Brown, for colored girls…
Sam Mendes, The Lehman Trilogy
Neil Pepe, American Buffalo
Les Waters, Dana H.

Will win: Mendes

Should win: Waters

 

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
Camille A. Brown, for colored girls…
Warren Carlyle, The Music Man
Carrie-Anne Ingrouille, Six
Bill T. Jones, Paradise Square
Christopher Wheeldon, MJ  

Will win: MJ

Should win: MJ

 

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Beowulf Boritt and 59 Productions, Flying Over Sunset
Bunny Christie, Company
Arnulfo Maldonado, A Strange Loop
Derek McLane and Peter Nigrini, MJ
Allen Moyer, Paradise Square

Will win: Company

Should win: MJ

 

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A PLAY
Beowulf Boritt, POTUS
Michael Carnahan and Nicholas Hussong, Skeleton Crew
Es Devlin, The Lehman Trilogy
Anna Fleischle, Hangmen
Scott Pask, American Buffalo
Adam Rigg, The Skin of Our Teeth

Will win: The Lehman Trilogy (over The Skin of Our Teeth)

Should win: The Lehman Trilogy

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Fly Davis, Caroline, or Change
Toni-Leslie James, Paradise Square
William Ivey Long, Diana
Santo Loquasto, The Music Man
Gabriella Slade, Six
Paul Tazewell, MJ

Will win: Six

Should win: The Music Man

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A PLAY
Montana Levi Blanco, The Skin of Our Teeth
Sarafina Bush, for colored girls…
Jane Greenwood, Plaza Suite
Jennifer Moeller, Clyde’s
Emilio Sosa, Trouble in Mind

Will win: The Skin of Our Teeth

Should win: Plaza Suite

 

 

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Neil Austin, Company
Tim Deiling, Six
Donald Holder, Paradise Square
Natasha Katz, MJ
Bradley King, Flying over Sunset
Jen Schriever, A Strange Loop

Will win: Six

Should win: Flying Over Sunset

 

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A PLAY
Joshua Carr, Hangmen
Jiyoun Chang, for colored girls…
Jon Clark, The Lehman Trilogy 
Jane Cox, Macbeth
Yi Zhao, The Skin of Our Teeth

Will win: The Lehman Trilogy

Should win: The Lehman Trilogy

 

BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Simon Baker, Girl from the North Country
Ian Dickinson for Autograph, Company
Paul Gatehouse, Six
Drew Levy, A Strange Loop
Gareth Owen, MJ

Will win: Six

Should win: Girl from the North Country

 

BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A PLAY
Justin Ellington, for colored girls…
Mikhail Fiksel, Dana H.
Palmer Hefferan, The Skin of Our Teeth
Nick Powell, The Lehman Trilogy
Mikaal Sulaiman, Macbeth

Will win: A The Lehman Trilogy

Should win: Dana H.

 

BEST ORCHESTRATIONS
David Cullan, Company
Tom Curran, Six
Simon Hale, Girl from the North Country
Charlie Rosen, A Strange Loop
Jason Michael Webb and David Holcenberg, MJ 

Will win: A Strange Loop

Should win: Girl from the North Country