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Doug’s Fearless 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Weren’t we just here? It feels like it was just last year that I was spitballing and just plain bawling about who might win what Oscars for the year in film that was 2021. And now it’s time to do it all over again for 2022. True, this year’s ceremony and nominations announcement don’t take place quite a year to the corresponding dates last year, but as we ease back into a new normal, the Academy is seeking to get things on track. Can they? Stick around once Tuesday sees the nominations announced. Until then, here’s my hunch as to what we can see, based on no real insight at all:

Best Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

TÁR

Top Gun: Maverick

The Whale

Alternates: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, RRR, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking

 

Best Director

James Cameron – Avatar: The Way of Water

Todd Field – TÁR

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin

Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

Alternates: Edward Berger – All Quiet on the Western Front, Damien Chazelle – Babylon, Joseph Kosinski – Top Gun: Maverick

 

Best Actor

Austin Butler – Elvis

Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser – The Whale

Paul Mescal – Aftersun

Bill Nighy – Living

Alternates: Possibly Tom Cruise Top Gun: Maverick, Jeremy Pope– The Inspection, Adam Sandler – Hustle

 

Best Actress

Ana de Armas – Blonde

Cate Blanchett – TÁR

Viola Davis – The Woman King

Margot Robbie – Babylon

Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Alternates: Danielle Deadwyler – Till, Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie, Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans

 

Best Supporting Actor

Paul Dano – The Fabelmans

Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin

Brad Pitt – Babylon

Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse

Alternates: Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin (a gamble, I know!), Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway, Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans, Ben Whishaw – Women Talking

 

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Carey Mulligan – She Said

Alternates: Jessie Buckley – Women Talking; Hong Chau – The Whale, Dolly de Leon – Triangle of Sadness

 

Best Original Screenplay

Todd Field – TÁR

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin

Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Edward Berger, Lesley Patterson, and Ian Stokell – All Quiet on the Western Front

Samuel D. Hunter – The Whale

Kazuo Ishiguro – Living

Rian Johnson – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Sarah Polley – Women Talking

 

Best Cinematography

Roger Deakins – Empire of Light

Greig Fraser – The Batman

James Friend – All Quiet on the Western Front

Claudio Miranda – Top Gun: Maverick

Mandy Walker – Elvis

 

Best Costume Design

Jenny Beavan – Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Ruth E. Carter – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Catherine Martin – Elvis

Gersha Phillips – The Woman King

Mary Zophres – Babylon

 

Best Film Editing

David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refoua, and Stephen E. Rivkin – Avatar: The Way of Water

Sven Budelmann – All Quiet on the Western Front

Eddie Hamilton – Top Gun: Maverick

Paul Rogers – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond – Elvis

 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Jason Baird, Mark Coulier, Louise Coulston, and Shane Thomas – Elvis

Anne Marie Bradley, Judy Chin, and Adrien Morot – The Whale

Naomi Donne, Mike Marino, and Zoe Tahir – The Batman

Heike Merker – All Quiet on the Western Front

Heba Thorisdottir and Jaime Leigh McIntosh – Babylon

 

Best Original Score

Carter Burwell – The Banshees of Inisherin

Alexandre Desplat – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Hildur Guðnadóttir – Women Talking

Justin Hurwitz – Babylon

John Williams – The Fabelmans

 

Best Original Song

“Carolina” – Where the Crawdads Sing

“Ciao Papa” – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

“Hold My Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick

“Lift Me Up” – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

“Naatu Naatu” – RRR

 

Best Production Design

Hannah Beachler (Production Design) and Lisa Sessions Morgan (Set Decoration) – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Dylan Cole and Ben Procter (Production Design) and Vanessa Cole (Set Decoration) – Avatar: The Way of Water

Jason Kisvarday, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Catherine Martin (Production Design) and Beverley Dunn (Set Decoration) – Elvis

Florencia Martin (Production Design) and Anthony Carlino (Set Decoration) – Babylon

 

Best Sound

Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Julian Howarth, Gary Summers, and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle – Avatar: The Way of Water

Chris Burdon, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Mark Taylor, and Mark Weingarten – Top Gun: Maverick

Alexander Fehrman, Brent Kiser, Stephen Nelson, and Andrew Twite – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Lars Ginzel, Frank Kruse, Viktor Prášil, and Markus Stemler – All Quiet on the Western Front

Michael Keller, David Lee, Andy Nelson, and Wayne Pashley – Elvis

 

Best Visual Effects

Richard Baneham, Daniel Barrett, Joe Letteri, and Eric Saindon – Avatar: The Way of Water

Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, Dan Sudick, and Hanzhi Tang – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, Dan Lemmon, and Dominic Tuohy – The Batman

Scott R. Fisher, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson, and Ryan Tudhope – Top Gun: Maverick

Theo Bialek, Chris Corbould, Janek Sirrs, and Erik Winquist – Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

 

Best Animated Film

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

My Father’s Dragon

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Turning Red

 

 

Best Documentary Feature

All That Breathes

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Descendant

Fire of Love

Navalny

 

Best International Feature Film

All Quiet on the Western Front

Argentina, 1985

Close

Decision to Leave

EO

 

Best Animated Short Film

The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse

The Flying Sailor

My Year of Dicks

New Moon

Save Ralph

 

Best Documentary Short Film

38 at the Garden

The Elephant Whisperers

The Flagmakers

Holding Moses

How Do You Measure a Year?

 

Best Live Action Short Film

An Irish Goodbye

Le Pupille

Nakam

The Red Suitcase

Warsha

 

Fingers crossed! Let me know what you think!