It’s been a year, hasn’t it? (Asking it in more ways than one.) As this weekend’s Oscar ceremony approaches, the discourse has reached a fever pitch. Could Michelle Yeoh make history? Could Cate Blanchett win a rare third career Oscar for Best Actress? For that matter, could Steven Spielberg when an equally elusive third Oscar for Best Director? Can an action-oriented sequel like Top Gun: Maverick cruise all the way to victory? (See what I did there?)
Below, my predictions in all 23 categories:
Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should win: The Banshees of Inisherin, Tár
Best Director
Todd Field, Tár
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness
Stephen Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could win: The Fabelmans
Should win: The Banshees of Inisherin, Tár
Best Actor
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
Will win: Butler
Could win: Fraser
Should win: Farrell
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will win: Yeoh
Could win: Blanchett
Should win: Blanchett
Best Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will win: Quan
Could win: Keoghan
Should win: Gleeson
Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will win: Bassett
Could win: Curtis
Should win: Condon
Best Adapted Screenplay
Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, and Ian Stokell, All Quiet on the Western Front
Kazuo Ishiguro, Living
Rian Johnson, Glass Onion
Ehren Kruger, Christopher McQuarrie, and Eric Warren Singer, Top Gun: Maverick
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Will win: Women Talking
Could win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should win: Women Talking
Best Original Screenplay
Todd Field, Tár
Tony Kushner and Stephen Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness
Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could win: The Banshees of Inisherin
Should win: The Banshees of Inisherin, Tár
Best International Feature
All Quiet on the Western Front, Germany
Argentina, 1985, Argentina
Close, Belgium
EO, Poland
The Quiet Girl, Ireland
Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Could win: Argentina, 1985
Should win: The Quiet Girl
Best Documentary Feature
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny
Will win: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Could win: Navalny
Should win: Fire of Love
Best Animated Feature
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
Will win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Could win: Turning Red
Should win: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
And the rest of the bunch:
Best Film Editing
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Turning Red
Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Original Song
“Alive,” Tell It Like a Woman
“Hold My Hand,” Top Gun: Maverick
“Lift Me Up,” Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Naatu Naatu,” RRR
“This Is a Life,” Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will win: “Naatu Naatu,” RRR
Best Original Score
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front
Bardo
Elvis
Empire of Light
Tár
Will win: Elvis
Best Costume Design
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Will win: Elvis
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale
Will win: Elvis
Best Production Design
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Will win: Elvis
Best Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick
Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick
Will win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Best Live-Action Short
An Irish Goodbye
Ivalu
Le Pupille
Night Ride
The Red Suitcase
Will win: Le Pupille
Best Animated Short
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
My Year of Dicks
An Ostrich Told Me the World Was Fake and I Think I Believe It
Will win: Le Pupille
Best Documentary Short
The Elephant Whisperers
Haulout
How Do You Measure a Year?
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate
Will win: Stranger at the Gate
