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Doug’s Fearless 2023 Oscar Predictions

It’s been a year, hasn’t it? (Asking it in more ways than one.) As this weekend’s Oscar ceremony approaches, the discourse has reached a fever pitch. Could Michelle Yeoh make history? Could Cate Blanchett win a rare third career Oscar for Best Actress? For that matter, could Steven Spielberg when an equally elusive third Oscar for Best Director? Can an action-oriented sequel like Top Gun: Maverick cruise all the way to victory? (See what I did there?)

Below, my predictions in all 23 categories: 

Best Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

Women Talking

Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Could win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Should win: The Banshees of Inisherin, Tár

 

Best Director

Todd Field, Tár

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

Stephen Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Could win: The Fabelmans

Should win: The Banshees of Inisherin, Tár

 

Best Actor

Austin Butler, Elvis

Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Paul Mescal, Aftersun

Bill Nighy, Living

Will win: Butler

Could win: Fraser

Should win: Farrell

 

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, Tár

Ana de Armas, Blonde

Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie

Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will win: Yeoh

Could win: Blanchett

Should win: Blanchett

 

Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans

Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will win: Quan

Could win: Keoghan

Should win: Gleeson

 

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Hong Chau, The Whale

Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will win: Bassett

Could win: Curtis

Should win: Condon

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, and Ian Stokell, All Quiet on the Western Front

Kazuo Ishiguro, Living

Rian Johnson, Glass Onion

Ehren Kruger, Christopher McQuarrie, and Eric Warren Singer, Top Gun: Maverick

Sarah Polley, Women Talking

Will win: Women Talking

Could win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Should win: Women Talking

 

Best Original Screenplay

Todd Field, Tár

Tony Kushner and Stephen Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Could win: The Banshees of Inisherin

Should win: The Banshees of Inisherin, Tár

 

Best International Feature

All Quiet on the Western Front, Germany

Argentina, 1985, Argentina

Close, Belgium

EO, Poland

The Quiet Girl, Ireland

Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Could win: Argentina, 1985

Should win: The Quiet Girl

 

Best Documentary Feature

All That Breathes

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Fire of Love

A House Made of Splinters

Navalny

Will win: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Could win: Navalny

Should win: Fire of Love

 

Best Animated Feature

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

The Sea Beast

Turning Red

Will win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Could win: Turning Red

Should win: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

 

And the rest of the bunch:

Best Film Editing

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Turning Red

Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

 

Best Original Song

“Alive,” Tell It Like a Woman

“Hold My Hand,” Top Gun: Maverick

“Lift Me Up,” Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

“Naatu Naatu,” RRR

“This Is a Life,” Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will win: “Naatu Naatu,” RRR

 

Best Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front

 

Best Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front

Bardo

Elvis

Empire of Light

Tár

Will win: Elvis

 

Best Costume Design

Babylon

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Will win: Elvis

 

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis

The Whale

Will win: Elvis

 

Best Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

Elvis

The Fabelmans

Will win: Elvis

 

Best Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Batman

Elvis

Top Gun: Maverick

Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front

 

Best Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Top Gun: Maverick

Will win: Avatar: The Way of Water

 

Best Live-Action Short

An Irish Goodbye

Ivalu

Le Pupille

Night Ride

The Red Suitcase

Will win: Le Pupille

 

Best Animated Short

The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse

The Flying Sailor

Ice Merchants

My Year of Dicks

An Ostrich Told Me the World Was Fake and I Think I Believe It

Will win: Le Pupille

 

Best Documentary Short

The Elephant Whisperers

Haulout

How Do You Measure a Year?

The Martha Mitchell Effect

Stranger at the Gate

Will win: Stranger at the Gate