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Doug’s Fearless 2024 Oscar Predictions

The year 2023 in film showed the most signs of life we’ve seen yet since COVID upended the world and the industry. Yes, the long-anticipated Barbenheimer event turned both Barbie and Oppenheimer into twenty-first century blockbusters.  But other serious films have earned blockbuster bucks in every year, including prestige period pieces and high-minded literary and theatrical adaptations. Barbenheimer was a nice mark on the cinematic blotter, but it’s not as momentous as one might think (plenty of films have had corporate muscle power them to beaucoup bucks and glowing reviews). and it hasn’t changed anything.

But there has been real achievement this year – think of Justine Triet’s powerful international masterpiece Anatomy of a Fall; or how with Poor Things, Emma Stone becomes the first woman to be nominated as both an actress and a producer – a feat the Barbras of the world never achieved and that the Meryls of the world never even pursued; or how perfect the casting of The Holdovers is; or how despite the naysayers, Maestro remains a beautiful, sophisticated biopic that shows one can be elliptical without being esoteric.

There are chances that some of these singular triumphs may poke through my anticipated Oppenheimer onslaught, one peppered with a soupcon of Barbie love. See below for full predictions:

Best Picture

American Fiction

Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

Will win: Oppenheimer

Could win: Barbie

Should win: Anatomy of a Fall

 

Best Director

Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall

Will win: Nolan

Could win: Scorsese (but really, any upset is so unlikely)

Should win: Triet

 

Best Actress

Annette Bening, Nyad

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Emma Stone, Poor Things

Will win: Gladstone

Could win: Stone

Should win: Huller

 

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Colman Domingo, Rustin

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Will win: Murphy

Could win: Giamatti

Should win: Cooper

 

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

America Ferrera, Barbie

Jodie Foster, Nyad

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Will win: Randolph

Could win: Blunt

Should win: Randolph

 

Best Supporting Actor

Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Will win: Downey, Jr.

Could win: Gosling

Should win: Ruffalo

 

Best Original Screenplay

Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall

David Hemingson, The Holdovers

Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer, Maestro

Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik, May December

Celine Song, Past Lives

Will win: Past Lives

Could win: Anatomy of a Fall

Should win: Anatomy of a Fall

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Cord Jefferson, American Fiction

Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, Barbie

Tony McNamara, Poor Things

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

Will win: Oppenheimer

Could win: American Fiction or Barbie

Should win: Poor Things

 

Best International Feature

Io Capitano, Italy

Perfect Days, Japan

Society of the Snow, Spain

The Teachers’ Lounge, Germany

The Zone of Interest, United Kingdom

Will win: The Zone of Interest

Could win: Perfect Days

Should win: The Zone of Interest

 

Best Animated Feature

The Boy and the Heron

Elemental

Nimona

Robot Dreams

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Will win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Could win: The Boy and the Heron

Should win: Nimona

 

Best Documentary Feature

Bobi Wine: The People’s President

The Eternal Memory

Four Daughters

To Kill a Tiger

20 Days in Mariupol

Will win: 20 Days in Mariupol

Could win: Four Daughters

Should win: Four Daughters

 

Best Cinematography

Edward Lachman, El Conde

Rodrigo Prieto, Killers of the Flower Moon

Matthew Libatique, Maestro

Hoyte van Hoytema, Oppenheimer

Robbie Ryan, Poor Things

Will win: Oppenheimer

Could win: Poor Things

Should win: Killers of the Flower Moon or Maestro

 

Best Editing

Laurent Sénéchal, Anatomy of a Fall

Kevin Tent, The Holdovers

Thelma Schoonmaker, Killers of the Flower Moon

Jennifer Lame, Oppenheimer

Yorgos Mavropsaridis, Poor Things

Will win: Oppenheimer

Could win: Anatomy of a Fall or Killers of the Flower Moon

Should win: Anatomy of a Fall

 

Best Costume Design

Jacqueline Durran, Barbie

Jacqueline West, Killers of the Flower Moon

Janty Yates and Dave Crossman, Napoleon

Ellen Mirojnick, Oppenheimer

Holly Waddington, Poor Things

Will win: Barbie

Could win: Poor Things

Should win: Poor Things

 

Best Production Design

Sarah Greenwood, production design; Katie Spencer, set decoration; Barbie

Jack Fisk, production design; Adam Willis, set decoration; Killers of the Flower Moon

Arthur Max, production design; Elli Griff, set decoration; Napoleon

Ruth De Jong, production design; Claire Kaufman, set decoration; Oppenheimer

James Price and Shona Heath, production design; Zsuzsa Mihalek, set decoration; Poor Things

Will win: Barbie

Could win: Poor Things

Should win: Killers of the Flower Moon

 

Best Hair and Makeup

Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby, and Ashra Kelly-Blue; Golda

Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou, and Lori McCoy-Bell; Maestro

Luisa Abel, Oppenheimer

Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier, and Josh Weston; Poor Things

Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí, and Montse Ribé; Society of the Snow

 Will win: Poor Things

Could win: Maestro

Should win: Maestro

 

Best Sound

Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich, and Dean Zupancic; The Creator

Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich, and Dean Zupancic; Maestro

Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon, and Mark Taylor; Mission: Impossible—Dead Reckoning Part One

Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo, and Kevin O’Connell; Oppenheimer

Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn; The Zone of Interest

Will win: Oppenheimer

Could win: The Zone of Interest

Should win: Maestro

 

Best Visual Effects

Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts, and Neil Corbould; The Creator

Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi, and Tatsuji Nojima; Godzilla Minus One

Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams, and Theo Bialek; Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland, and Neil Corbould; Mission: Impossible—Dead Reckoning Part One

Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco, and Neil Corbould; Napoleon

Will win: Godzilla Minus One

Could win: The Creator

Should win: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

 

Best Original Score

Laura Karpman, American Fiction

John Williams, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Robbie Robertson, Killers of the Flower Moon

Ludwig Göransson, Oppenheimer

Jerskin Fendrix, Poor Things

Will win: Oppenheimer

Could win: American Fiction

Should win: Killers of the Flower Moon

 

Best Original Song

“What Was I Made For?,” Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell, Barbie

“I’m Just Ken,” Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt, Barbie

“The Fire Inside,” Diane Warren, Flamin’ Hot

“It Never Went Away,” Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson, American Symphony

“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People),” Scott George, Killers of the Flower Moon

Will win: “What Was I Made For?”

Could win: “I’m Just Ken”

Should win: “The Fire Inside”

 

Best Animated Short

Letter to a Pig

Ninety-Five Senses

Our Uniform

Pachyderme

War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko

 Will win: Letter to a Pig

Could win: War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko

Should win: Letter to a Pig

 

Best Live Action Short

The After

Invincible

Knight of Fortune

Red, White and Blue

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

 Will win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Could win: The After

Should win: Invincible

 

Best Animated Short

The ABCs of Book Banning

The Barber of Little Rock

Island in Between

The Last Repair Shop

Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó

Will win: The Last Repair Shop

Could win: Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó

Should win: The Barber of Little Rock