Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series

Adolescence (Netflix)
Black Mirror (Netflix)
Dying for Sex (FX)
Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story (Netflix)
The Penguin (HBO)

With all due respect for Dying for Sex (a warmly devastating series that did justice to its “getting kinky while terminally ill” premise) and somewhat less respect for Black Mirror and Monsters (two uneven shows that benefited from a weak year for limited series), the only conversation worth having here is The Penguin versus Adolescence. In many ways these are two very opposite shows on the topic of crime: The Penguin, the IP-connected tale of mobsters and vendettas, anchored by a movie star made unrecognizable under makeup, and Adolescence, a too-real domestic tale of a child committing murder. Voters will get to decide whether they prefer the operatic largeness of Penguin or the tightly contained single-take bravura of Adolescence, though my sense is that snob appeal will tip the scales in favor of Adolescence. (Also, Say Nothing towers over all of these.)

Will Win: Adolescence
Could Win: The Penguin
Should Win: Dying for Sex

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Colin Farrell, The Penguin
Stephen Graham, Adolescence
Jake Gyllenhaal, Presumed Innocent
Brian Tyree Henry, Dope Thief
Cooper Koch, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story

For a while, I thought the Adolescence wave would sweep Stephen Graham into an acting award as well. I figured he’d get bonus points for being a creator and writer on the show — plus he’s been a reliable lunchpail supporting player for so long. But the more I think about it, the more I realize Graham is only in two of the four Adolescence episodes, and is more or less on equal footing with the rest of the show’s ensemble in terms of general impact. That’s a tougher sell when going up against Colin Farrell, who appeared in all episodes of the second-most-nominated program of the year.

Will Win: Colin Farrell
Could Win: Jake Gyllenhaal
Should Win: Colin Farrell

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Cate Blanchett, Disclaimer
Meghann Fahy, Sirens
Rashida Jones, Black Mirror
Cristin Milioti, The Penguin
Michelle Williams, Dying for Sex

Perhaps if Michelle Williams hadn’t already won an Emmy semi-recently for Fosse/Verdon in 2019, she might have a bigger drumbeat for her performance in Dying for Sex. She’d certainly be deserving of the trophy. Her deft blending of fatalism, frustration, and a kind of impish playfulness are a huge part of what keeps Dying for Sex from getting too maudlin or crass.

But this column is a space to advocate for Cristin Milioti’s performance as Sofia Gigante and always has been. Milioti’s been a recurring TV presence for nearly two decades — Lord knows a segment of the population will always remember her as “the Mother” from How I Met Your Mother, but real ones know she’s the very sexy baby from 30 Rock. This only makes the ferocity with which she tears into Sofia’s scenes hit harder. She grabs The Penguin by the throat and claims the show as her own, a robbery as audacious as any heist pulled off in Gotham. Milioti sidesteps the psychotic-baby-doll trappings of a Harley Quinn knockoff to play Sofia’s madness as something altogether righteous and hard-earned.

Will Win: Michelle Williams
Could Win: Cristin Milioti
Should Win: Michelle Williams, in a weak group

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Javier Bardem, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
Bill Camp, Presumed Innocent
Owen Cooper, Adolescence
Rob Delaney, Dying for Sex
Peter Sarsgaard, Presumed Innocent
Ashley Walters, Adolescence

This feels like the least competitive category on the ballot, though not for lack of talented competition. Rob Delaney was funny, sweet, and sexy in all the right measures on Dying for Sex, while Ashley Walters was every bit the single-episode stalwart on Adolescence that Erin Doherty was in her standout episode. But Owen Cooper is the whole story here. The teenager was tasked with playing multiple layers of hurt, anger, fear, confusion, defensiveness, and obstruction as Jamie, the 13-year-old accused of murdering a classmate. It’s an incredibly impressive turn, and I don’t think voters will be able to resist recognizing it.

Of the possible dark-horse contenders, I’d cite Javier Bardem — an Oscar winner who takes up a lot of the oxygen whenever he’s onscreen as José Menendez — as well as Bill Camp. A consummate character actor, Camp is never less than interesting, even while playing a purely functional role, as he does in Presumed Innocent. He might have a better shot if not for his co-star sharing the category with him. Presumed Innocent showed up better in the Emmy nominations than I expected, and it was thrilling to see Peter Sarsgaard nominated for his simmering, petty prosecutor. But one fewer supporting actor nomination for Presumed might have given Camp a better shot to pull off an upset.

Will Win: Owen Cooper
Could Win: Javier Bardem
Should Win: Rob Delaney

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Erin Doherty, Adolescence
Ruth Negga, Presumed Innocent 
Deirdre O’Connell, The Penguin
Chloë Sevigny, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
Jenny Slate, Dying for Sex 
Christine Tremarco, Adolescence

This is one of those categories where in a less competitive year I could see several nominees winning. Frankly, it’s insane that Jenny Slate isn’t going to win an Emmy for Dying for Sex, a series where she keeps up both comedically and dramatically with Michelle Williams, to the point where the series ends on her character and that seems perfectly good and right.

Meanwhile, there may not be a career arc that’s as lowkey red hot as Dierdre O’Connell’s right now. She won a Tony Award in 2022 for Dana H. She played the Ann Dowd/Patti LuPone role (character actress or theater legend as terrifying older woman with sinister and perhaps supernatural intent) in Ari Aster’s Eddington earlier this year. In November, she’ll be in the Netflix miniseries The Beast in Me opposite Claire Danes. And in the midst of all of that she played mother to gangster Oz Cobb on The Penguin and tore into that Livia-Soprano-meets-Miss-Havisham role with abandon.

Yet they both might end up losing to the comparatively unknown young actress who played Princess Anne on The Crown. Erin Doherty gets one episode to show her stuff in Adolescence, and it’s an impossible assignment: a two-hander where she must engage in psychological combat with a 14-year-old boy. Doherty plays her state-assigned psychologist with cleverness, care, and a level of vulnerability that alarms even her. An Adolescence sweep would easily carry Doherty to victory (she might win even without a sweep). However, I do suspect voters will respond to O’Connell’s grandiosity and ability to go from snarling to feeble in moments.

Will Win: Erin Doherty
Could Win: Deirdre O’Connell
Should Win: Deirdre O’Connell

Outstanding Directing for a Limited Series, Anthology, or Movie

Adolescence, Philip Barantini
Dying for Sex, “It’s Not That Serious,” Shannon Murphy
The Penguin, “Cent’Anni,” Helen Shaver
The Penguin, “A Great or Little Thing,” Jennifer Getzinger
Sirens, “Exile,” Nicole Kassell
Zero Day, Lesli Linka Glatter

By a quirk of the rules, Adolescence and Zero Day are nominated for their entire series (because they each kept the same director for the full season), while Dying for Sex, The Penguin, and Sirens compete with individual episodes. This gives Adolescence a massive advantage, especially since its biggest competition, The Penguin, is nominated twice, especially for its audacious finale. But while I think Philip Barantini has this one in the bag, can we take a second to recognize overdue industry hyphenate Helen Shaver getting nominated for The Penguin’s big Sofia Gigante backstory episode?

Will Win: Philip Barantini, Adolescence
Could Win: Jennifer Getzinger, The Penguin
Should Win: Helen Shaver, The Penguin

Outstanding Writing for a Limited Series, Anthology, or Movie

Adolescence, Jack Thorne and Stephen Graham
Black Mirror, “Common People,” Charlie Brooker and Bisha K. Ali
Dying for Sex, “Good Value Diet Soda,” Kim Rosenstock and Elizabeth Meriwether
The Penguin, “A Great or Little Thing,” Lauren LeFranc
Say Nothing, “The People In The Dirt,” Joshua Zetumer

Again, Adolescence gets to compete as a complete entity rather than individual episodes, and it’s a huge advantage. As a writing endeavor, each episode feels like a building block, filling in a different aspect or angle on this horrific crime. Nominated separately, voters might need to decide which aspects of the show are stronger than others; nominated together, those four episodes make Adolescence pretty unbeatable.

Dying for Sex being nominated for its series premiere and The Penguin for its series finale would make for a fun experiment if one of them wins. Were it up to me, I’d probably nominate Dying for Sex for its finale (sticking the landing on this particular story was not guaranteed) and The Penguin for its premiere (an expectation-defying hour that establishes Oz as far more dangerous than we may have expected). And I’m happy to see Say Nothing nominated here for its powerful series finale. It should have gotten far more nominations overall.

Will Win: Jack Thorne and Stephen Graham, Adolescence
Could Win: Lauren LeFranc, The Penguin
Should Win: Joshua Zetumer, Say Nothing