Outstanding Comedy Series
Abbott Elementary (ABC)
The Bear (FX)
Hacks (HBO Max)
Nobody Wants This (Netflix)
Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Shrinking (Apple TV+)
The Studio (Apple TV+)
What We Do in the Shadows (FX)
Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg’s Hollywood farce managed to impress all the right people and emerge as the year’s signature comedy. Part of the reason it’s been able to do that is because the 2024-2025 TV season has been an oddly formless year for comedy, and good narratives have been hard to come by. The Bear was always going to be in a tough position, competing for its poorly received third season that aired last summer, but a comeback narrative for season four would have at least put voters in a positive frame of mind when it came to their ballots. Reviews were muted, though, and once the nominations came out and the show topped out at 13 (down from 23 last year), it’s been hard to shake the notion that The Bear is in decline.
Nobody Wants This was the year’s other freshman upstart and enjoyed a head start at awards ceremonies by premiering last fall and cashing in on nominations from the Globes and SAG. But premiering so early also means momentum is lagging for a show that was popular but also divisive. What We Do in the Shadows ended its run relatively quietly, Only Murders in the Building slumped in its fourth season, and Abbott Elementary and Shrinking are in the “just happy to be nominated” zone.
Hacks remains The Studio’s biggest competition, and when it comes to the Emmys, you can never count out last year’s winner. Deborah Vance sticking it to soulless TV execs is as much voter bait as anything on The Studio.
Will win: The Studio
Could win: Hacks
Should win: Hacks
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Adam Brody, Nobody Wants This
Seth Rogen, The Studio
Jason Segel, Shrinking
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear
Jeremy Allen White’s two-year chokehold on this category getting broken by Seth Rogen would be the funniest thing that’s happened to the Comedy categories in a while. After winning the SAG for Lead Actor in a Comedy in February, it seemed like Martin Short might be the one to benefit from The Bear’s fall from grace, but after The Studio’s nomination total came in, this Emmy became Rogen’s to lose. But don’t count out industry love for veteran Adam Brody!
Will win: Seth Rogen
Could win: Jeremy Allen White
Should win: Martin Short
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Uzo Aduba, The Residence
Kristen Bell, Nobody Wants This
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
Jean Smart, Hacks
Sometimes a category is so locked, it’s not worth debating who’s going to win. Jean Smart is about to get her fourth Emmy for Hacks. It would maybe be a different story if her biggest competition — Ayo Edebiri — weren’t representing a show Emmy voters are rapidly falling out of love with. Neither Abbott Elementary nor Nobody Wants This has the juice to get their nominees across the finish line, and while Uzo Aduba is both a TV Academy favorite (two Emmys for Orange Is the New Black plus one for Mrs. America) and actually pretty great in The Residence, she’s repping a canceled show that maybe only I liked.
Will win: Jean Smart
Should win: Ayo Edebiri
Could win: Jean Smart
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Ike Barinholtz, The Studio
Colman Domingo, The Four Seasons
Harrison Ford, Shrinking
Jeff Hiller, Somebody Somewhere
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear
Michael Urie, Shrinking
Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live
Generally speaking, a two-time defending champion in an Emmy category is always going to be a formidable contender, even though no one’s won three in a row here since Entourage’s Jeremy Piven in 2008. While I don’t think you can entirely rule Ebon Moss-Bachrach out, there seems to be a changing of the guard in the air. The question is, in what direction?
I tend not to use the Critics Choice Awards as a bellwether for anything, and Michael Urie’s competition when he won in February wasn’t anyone he’ll be up against this Sunday. But the mere fact that Urie won a major precursor award and was so memorably funny in his speech could give him a boost. (Of course, that boost could get unboosted due to intra-Shrinking vote-splitting with Harrison Ford.)
I don’t think The Four Seasons is popular enough to get Colman Domingo up on that stage, even if, as a generally award-able person, he’s so hot right now. SNL’s 50th anniversary could conceivably be the rising tide that finally lifts Bowen Yang to a win. And honestly, for as much as Jeff Hiller could seem like the most “happy to get the nomination” of these seven, sometimes a shocking nominee becomes a shocking winner. The voters went out of their way, bypassing buzzier contenders on more-watched shows to nominate Hiller. They clearly really like him. And yet, I’ll make perhaps the safest choice and go with Ike Barinholtz. The Studio’s momentum is strong, and Barinholtz’s Sal Sapperstein is enough of a Hollywood D-bag for voters to laugh at but likable enough for them to vote for.
Will win: Ike Barinholtz
Could win: Harrison Ford
Should win: Jeff Hiller
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Liza Colón-Zayas, The Bear
Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
Kathryn Hahn, The Studio
Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
Catherine O’Hara, The Studio
Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary
Jessica Williams, Shrinking
On paper, Hannah Einbinder should have this award in the bag: She’s a co-lead slumming in the Supporting Actress category, representing last year’s series winner. Yet history says I should be on the lookout for upset potential.
Both Colón-Zayas and Ralph are still there, and we know voters liked them enough to give them the win at least once before. Colón-Zayas in particular got a spotlight episode voters liked enough to nominate Ayo Edebiri for it in Directing. Maybe I’m just overthinking it and Colón-Zayas takes it again, but the dark horse I’ve had my eye on all season is Catherine O’Hara. She’s an actress the Emmys clearly love, double nominated this year for The Studio and The Last of Us, and she’s only five years removed from winning Lead Actress in a Comedy for Schitt’s Creek. And her character — fired studio head Patty Leigh — is full of note-perfect passive aggression and an Amy Pascal twinkle of madness in her eye. However, I worry Kathryn Hahn could pull some votes from The Studio fans in the Academy, which is the only reason I’m making the safe prediction here.
Will win: Hannah Einbinder
Could win: Catherine O’Hara
Should win: Hannah Einbinder
Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series
The Bear, “Napkins,” Ayo Edebiri
Hacks, “A Slippery Slope,” Lucia Aniello
Mid-Century Modern, “Here’s to You, Mrs. Schneiderman,” James Burrows
The Rehearsal, “Pilot’s Code,” Nathan Fielder
The Studio, “The Oner,” Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg
The Bear and Hacks have combined to win this category in three of the last four years, but I think The Studio is way ahead of the pack here. “The Oner,” is a madcap, full-speed, single-take episode where Seth Rogen’s studio head tries (and fails, hard) to remain unobtrusive while Sarah Polley directs a single-take scene in her latest film. The one-take thing is less a gimmick here than it is a called shot — by hanging a lantern on the episode’s structure, Rogen and Goldberg are placing a ton of pressure on the episode to live up to the implicit hype of a single-take episode about filming a single-take scene in a movie. And they do! The episode is a roving, winding stress-ball, and you’re exhausted but satisfied once it’s over.
I do think there’s an argument to be made that Edebiri could pull votes from Academy members who like her on The Bear but couldn’t vote for her in Best Actress because that’s where Jean Smart is. But I don’t honestly believe that will happen.
Will win: Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg, The Studio
Could win: Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
Should win: Lucia Aniello, Hacks
Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series
Abbott Elementary, “Back to School,” Quinta Brunson
Hacks, “A Slippery Slope,” Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, and Jen Statsky
The Rehearsal, “Pilot’s Code,” Nathan Fielder, Carrie Kemper, Adam Locke-Norton, and Eric Notarnicola
Somebody Somewhere, “AGG,” Hannah Bos, Paul Thureen, and Bridget Everett
The Studio, “The Promotion,” Seth Rogen, Evan Goldberg, Peter Huyck, Alex Gregory, and Frida Perez
What We Do in the Shadows, “The Finale,” Sam Johnson, Sarah Naftalis, and Paul Simms
Hacks has won this award twice previously, and a third win would put them in the company of shows like 30 Rock and All in the Family. The only show, I think, that is standing between Aniello, Downs, and Statsky and that rarefied company is The Studio. I don’t love “The Promotion,” the series premiere episode; I find it grating and sweaty in a way the rest of the season backs away from. But voters might simply see an opportunity to award a show they enjoy very much.
A series finale win for What We Do in the Shadows would be a heck of a send-off after seven nominations in this category, but there doesn’t seem to be much buzz there. I’d love for Somebody Somewhere to win for its lovely series finale, but, again, no buzz. The one shocker I could see happening is The Rehearsal, if the voters feel like throwing a curveball, which they sometimes do: Master of None and Malcolm in the Middle both won this category twice.
Will win: Seth Rogen, Evan Goldberg, Peter Huyck, Alex Gregory, and Frida Perez, The Studio
Could win: Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, and Jen Statsky, Hacks
Should win: Hannah Bos, Paul Thureen, and Bridget Everett, Somebody Somewhere
