Outstanding Drama Series

Andor (Disney+)
The Diplomat (Netfix)
The Last of Us (HBO)
Paradise (Hulu)
The Pitt (HBO Max)
Severance (Apple TV+)
Slow Horses (Apple TV+) 
The White Lotus (HBO)

Severance versus The Pitt is a real head-versus-heart debate. Severance is the smarter bet: the nomination leader, the impressive production design, Ben Stiller throwing his weight around. But The Pitt has the better narrative: a medical procedural with strong storytelling instincts and a real “This is how we used to make TV when things were better” vibe. I expected more for The Pitt than the 13 nominations it got, and that’s what’s currently holding me back from predicting it to win this year. (If the show can pull off a second season that improves on the first, however, you probably have next year’s Emmy front-runner.)

Both The White Lotus and The Last of Us are Emmy behemoths who still command a lot of attention (23 and 16 nominations, respectively), but both shows failed to match the high standards their previous seasons had set. You can safely put The Diplomat, Paradise, and even Slow Horses in the “happy to be nominated” bucket, even if Slow Horses is closer to the “should have a better shot at winning than it does” bucket.

Will win: Severance
Could win: The Pitt
Should win: The Pitt

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Sterling K. Brown, Paradise
Gary Oldman, Slow Horses
Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us
Adam Scott, Severance
Noah Wyle, The Pitt

It’s always worth taking a second look at an Emmy category where everybody seems to agree on the person who’s going to win but that person has never won before. We all assume Noah Wyle is a shoo-in here because (1) he’s excellent on The Pitt, anchoring the chaos of the emergency room in his compassionate yet authoritative hoodie, and (2) he has a bulletproof awards narrative, a comeback story that gives us all a reason to remember why we loved ER so much.

But we don’t actually know how much Emmy voters like The Pitt. Thirteen nominations is a pretty good number, but it’s the same number of nominations The Bear got, and we’re all interpreting that as Emmy voters stubbing out a cigarette on Carmy Berzatto’s forehead. Wyle was nominated a handful of times for ER but never won.

Meanwhile, Adam Scott will pull votes for his dual performance on Severance, which is packed with a bunch of splashy, impressive acting — the kind of things you’d call stunts if Scott weren’t so good at them. That Mark-on-Mark argument in the season finale is the kind of thing we’ll all look back at if he wins and think, Of course.

I’d still place my bets on Wyle here, even if a part of me wants to take a longshot flyer on Gary Oldman or something. Hey, Slow Horses won a surprise Writing award last year! Weird stuff happens!

Will win: Adam Scott
Could win: Noah Wyle
Should win: Noah Wyle

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Kathy Bates, Matlock
Sharon Horgan, Bad Sisters
Britt Lower, Severance
Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us
Keri Russell, The Diplomat

Kathy Bates being the runaway front-runner for this award despite being Matlock’s only Emmy nomination is the kind of curiosity that makes you search for an upset possibility. Maybe Britt Lower can ride the Severance wave for delivering a lot of character-playing-a-character work as Helly/Helena. Maybe The Last of Us’s fans will funnel all their support into a win for Bella Ramsey. Maybe voters will remember they only awarded Matthew Rhys and not Keri Russell for The Americans and make things right. It’s not my favorite year for Lead Actress in a Drama, and while I wouldn’t begrudge Kathy Bates anything in this life, I’d probably go for Russell. She’s holding The Diplomat’s goofy take on geopolitics together with her gravitas and charisma alone.

Will win: Kathy Bates
Could win: Britt Lower
Should win: Kathy Bates

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Zach Cherry, Severance
Walton Goggins, The White Lotus
Jason Isaacs, The White Lotus 
James Marsden, Paradise
Sam Rockwell, The White Lotus
Tramell Tillman, Severance
John Turturro, Severance

Honestly? Not my favorite category this year. I was really underwhelmed by the narrative silo Severance stuck Zach Cherry’s Dylan in (Merritt Wever did win Guest Actress in a Drama for playing his wife, but I chalk that up to how much the Emmys historically love Merritt Wever), and the same goes for John Turturro once the show got past Irving’s one big moment.

Meanwhile, a ton of my issues with The White Lotus this season were wrapped up in Goggins’s vague and imprecisely drawn character. That’s probably not his fault, but it’s hard to get excited about him winning an Emmy for it (he’s currently the betting favorite on sites like Gold Derby). I know that the letter of the law says that Sam Rockwell appeared in more than half of the episodes in season three and therefore must be a Supporting Actor, but we can all agree that that’s foolishness, right? The man made a substantive impact in two episodes and was also there for two more. And he might win!

I don’t think James Marsden will win, but I am happy he got nominated, because he’s pretty good in a deeply silly role as the President of the United States whose whole deal is that he likes ’80s rock songs.

Early on, my two favorites in this category were Jason Isaacs and Tramell Tillman. Isaacs was the tortured hub around those wacky Ratliffs, my favorite of The White Lotus’s storylines, while Tillman carried the first half of that Severance season, making his Seth Milchick TV’s best antihero. I think Isaacs is probably too overshadowed by his co-stars to have a real shot at winning here, but I deeply hope that Tillman’s skyrocketing star meter (he appeared in Mission: Impossible this year and just got cast in the next Spider-Man movie) will lead him to victory.

Will win: Walton Goggins
Could win: Tramell Tillman
Should win: Jason Isaacs

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Patricia Arquette, Severance
Carrie Coon, The White Lotus
Katherine LaNasa, The Pitt 
Julianne Nicholson, Paradise
Parker Posey, The White Lotus
Natasha Rothwell, The White Lotus
Aimee Lou Wood, The White Lotus

Will win: Parker Posey
Could win: Carrie Coon
Should win: Katherine LaNasa

Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series

Andor, “Who Are You?,” Janus Metz
The Pitt, “6:00 P.M.,” Amanda Marsalis
The Pitt: “7:00 A.M.,” John Wells
Severance, “Chikhai Bardo,” Jessica Lee Gagné
Severance, “Cold Harbor,” Ben Stiller
Slow Horses, “Hello Goodbye,” Adam Randal
The White Lotus, “Amor Fati,” Mike White

With all due respect to the Slow Horses season finale (which featured a tense and ultimately tragic shootout) and the White Lotus season finale (which featured an abrupt and ultimately pointless shootout), the predictive tension in this category lies in the fact that we have two Severance episodes and two Pitt episodes. The John Wells–directed series premiere feels like the best bet for The Pitt. Eight series premieres — The West Wing, Six Feet Under, Lost, Deadwood, Boardwalk Empire, House of Cards, The Handmaid’s Tale, and Squid Game — have won the Directing for a Drama Series award in this century, and Wells had a lot to accomplish here, setting up the complex geography of the ER as well as the criss-crossed dynamics of a vast set of characters.

Of the two Severance nominees, “Cold Harbor” is the season finale and features a lot of momentous action and bold directorial choices (the marching-band dance break! The breakaway run at the end!), but “Chikhai Bardo” might be the more impressive option. As a departure episode that catches up the audience on what exactly has been going on with Gemma all this time, there was a lot of narrative pressure to make this crucial transition into the season’s endgame work, and Jessica Lee Gagné pulled it off.

Oh, and there’s also Andor, nominated for the single best TV episode of the year. The Ghorman massacre was the most impactful piece of Star Wars storytelling in … decades? Anyway, there’s no chance it wins.

Will win: Jessica Lee Gagné, Severance
Could win: John Wells, The Pitt
Should win: John Wells, The Pitt

Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series

Andor, “Welcome to the Rebellion,” Dan Gilroy
The Pitt, “2:00 P.M.,” Joe Sachs
The Pitt, “7:00 A.M.,” R. Scott Gemmill
Severance, “Cold Harbor,” Dan Erickson
Slow Horses, “Hello Goodbye,” Will Smith
The White Lotus, “Full-Moon Party,” Mike White

I know I very definitively stated that Andor has no shot to win in Directing, but am I crazy to think they might have a chance to win here? Let’s walk through the case: The Pitt is a more directorial show than it is writerly, with its roving camera hopping from doctor to doctor and case to case. The White Lotus winning for Mike White writing the brother kiss feels too divisive to be possible. Slow Horses won this category last year, so I wouldn’t count it out, even if the show feels marginally less buzzy this year (probably because last year felt like its breakout season). This is probably Severance’s award to lose. That show is so ideas-forward, a perfect scenario for a writing award.

Will win: Dan Erickson, Severance
Could win: Will Smith, Slow Horses
Should win: Joe Sachs, The Pitt