The Nominees: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme; Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another; Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon; Michael B. Jordan, Sinners; Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent.

After wins at both Critics Choice and Golden Globes, Timothée Chalamet was considered the front-runner here, pretty much a lock to nab his first Oscar on the heels of being nominated twice before — including last year for A Complete Unknown. However, once it came to the awards the industry votes upon, he lost at BAFTA to Robert Aramayo in I Swear. But I Swear isn’t eligible at the Oscars this year, plus it is British so could be written off as just a quirk of BAFTA. But then, at SAG-AFTRA’s Actor Awards, Chalamet lost again, this time to Michael B. Jordan, in a victory that sent a bolt of electricity through the room and reset this race which is now virtually anyone’s to win. It is no doubt tight, and I wouldn’t count Chalamet out, but the momentum seems elsewhere. As for the stupid latest trumped-up controversy over Chalamet’s “dismissal” of ballet and opera — it’s not only taken out of context, it didn’t go viral until after voting closed. I wouldn’t be surprised by any of this quintet winning. Hawke’s movie is the least seen and only non-Best Picture nominee, but if voters are honest and see all five, he has a real shot. Still, the safer bet at the moment is…

THE WINNER: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners