The Nominees: Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value; Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value; Amy Madigan, Weapons; Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners; Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Look for the pair from Sentimental Value to cancel each other out. Similarly, Mosaku and Taylor being in the year’s two most-nominated films could also split voters allegiance. This all leaves an opening for Critics Choice and Actor Awards winner Madigan who will prevail, despite being the single nomination that her film Weapons got, and despite being a horror film performance. It’s unique, and she’s widely admired, gaining her first nomination, and second ever, in 40 years.

THE WINNER: Amy Madigan, Weapons