Best Musical
THE NOMINEES
The Lost Boys
Schmigadoon!
Titaníque
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Will win: Schmigadoon!
Should win: The Lost Boys
South Pacific, Guys and Dolls, Fiddler, Cabaret, 1776, Rent, The Producers, and Hamilton these are not. But in a transitional season, the four productions above emerged as the best of the best, heaven help us. Schmigadoon! has the momentum, but The Lost Boys is the best executed. It knows exactly what it is and completes its mission with confidence.
Best Play
THE NOMINEES
The Balusters, David Lindsay-Abaire
Giant, Mark Rosenblatt
Liberation, Bess Wohl
Little Bear Ridge Road, Samuel D. Hunter
Will win: Liberation
Should win: Little Bear Ridge Road
I’m tempted to predict a win for Giant due to recency bias. It’s still playing on Broadway while Liberation closed months ago. But I suspect voters will want to give a boost to the post-Broadway afterlife of Liberation (destined to be produced at regional theaters across America) by giving it the Tony stamp of approval.
Best Revival of a Musical
THE NOMINEES
Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Ragtime
Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Will win: Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Should win: Ragtime
I was certain this category was Ragtime‘s to win, but Cats: The Jellicle Ball made me pause, and ultimately convinced me that this show is the musical revival that deserves the Tony for its shear creativity and power to make us see something old anew. I think it could go either way, and I certainly would love to see Ragtime win, but Cats has become something of a phenomenon this season, and I think voters will acknowledge that with a win.
Best Revival of a Play
THE NOMINEES
Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Becky Shaw
Every Brilliant Thing
Fallen Angels
Oedipus
Will win: Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Should win: Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
This production crushed me and got deep in my soul. Talk about making us see something old anew. I’ve seen this play half a dozen times. So why did this feel like the first? Sheer power—from the Joe Mantello’s direction, to the magnificent set, to the heart-pounding performances. It’s everything a great revival should be.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
THE NOMINEES
Rose Byrne, Fallen Angels
Carrie Coon, Bug
Susannah Flood, Liberation
Lesley Manville, Oedipus
Kelli O’Hara, Fallen Angels
Will win: Manville
Should win: Manville
She cast a spell over the audience in a 10-minute monologue in Oedipus, during which we could think of nothing else. In a time of tragically shortened attention spans, that deserves a Tony.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
THE NOMINEES
Will Harrison, Punch
Nathan Lane, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
John Lithgow, Giant
Daniel Radcliffe, Every Brilliant Thing
Mark Strong, Oedipus
Will win: Lithgow
Should win: Lane
John Lithgow has brought New York audiences the U.K.-born Giant, a searing character study of Roald Dahl in the midst of a self-combusting antisemitic firestorm. Nathan Lane upends expectations for the kind of performance he can give by shape-shifting into the despairingly aspiring Willy Loman in Death of a Salesman. Both performances are gripping portraits of self-destruction. What makes this Salesman so effective, though, is the taut chemistry among its four leads: You leave Salesman singing the praises of the ensemble more so than the star alone. For that reason, Lithgow, so explosive as the appalling Dahl, should inch past.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
THE NOMINEES
Sara Chase, Schmigadoon!
Stephanie Hsu, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Caissie Levy, Ragtime
Marla Mindelle, Titaníque
Christiani Pitts, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Will win: Levy
Should win: Chase
This marks a long overdue first nomination for Caissie Levy, and likely a well-deserved first Tony win for this Broadway mainstay with Marin Mazzie-sized shoes to fill. In an alternate universe, it would be fun to see Sara Chase pull an upset. In a cast of scenery chewers, she’s the glue that holds Schmigadoon! together.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
THE NOMINEES
Nicholas Christopher, Chess
Luke Evans, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Joshua Henry, Ragtime
Sam Tutty, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Brandon Uranowitz, Ragtime
Will win: Henry
Should win: Uranowitz
When Joshua Henry was announced to play Coalhouse Walker Jr. for the City Center run of Ragtime, this moment felt almost inevitable. If the trophy was engraved in pencil in 2024, it was carved in stone last fall when the show opened at the Beaumont, where Henry unleashed the full power of his performance. This is the closest we have to a sure thing on June 7.
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
THE NOMINEES
Shoshana Bean, The Lost Boys
Hannah Cruz, Chess
Rachel Dratch, The Rocky Horror Show
Ana Gasteyer, Schmigadoon!
Nichelle Lewis, Ragtime
Will win: Shoshana Bean, The Lost Boys
Should win: Ana Gasteyer, Schmigadoon!
If a few different actresses were in the mix—say, “Tempress” Chasity Moore from Cats, or McKenzie Kurtz and Isabelle McCalla from Schmigadoon!, or Stephanie Hsu from The Rocky Horror Show (who was oddly bumped up to Lead)—this would be a more interesting race. Lewis has the most dramatic role, but Audra McDonald’s original performance casts a mighty long shadow over it. We suspect that Bean, a well-liked and well-respected industry vet who was also nominated in this category in 2022 and 2024, will finally get her flowers.
BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
THE NOMINEES
Ali Louis Bourzgui, The Lost Boys
André De Shields, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Bryce Pinkham, Chess
Ben Levi Ross, Ragtime
Layton Williams, Titaníque
Will win: André De Shields, Cats: The Jellicle Ball over Ben Levi Ross, Ragtime
Should win: Ali Louis Bourzgui, The Lost Boys
Stage icon André de Shields is generally favored to win for presiding royally over Cats: The Jellicle Ball, and he might very well do so. But we suspect this race is tighter than it seems, and have a feeling it could end in an upset for Ali Louis Bourzgui, who brings startling charisma and range to his portrayal of the principal vampire in The Lost Boys. If the voting is distributed widely enough, Ben Levi Ross and Layton Williams also have outside chances at the win. The only non-factor is Pinkham, a shock nomination for a gifted performer in an unbearable role who, through no fault of his own, is giving the season’s second-most-annoying Broadway performance.
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY
THE NOMINEES
Betsy Aidem, Liberation
Marylouise Burke, The Balusters
Aya Cash, Giant
Laurie Metcalf, Death of a Salesman
June Squibb, Marjorie Prime
Will win: Laurie Metcalf, Death of a Salesman
Should win: Laurie Metcalf, Death of a Salesman
Laurie Metcalf should also have been nominated this year for her terrific lead performance in Little Bear Ridge Road. But voters do have to the chance to recognize her stunning supporting work in Death of a Salesman, and they are going to do just that. Watch out for a surprise upset from Burke, however.
BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY
THE NOMINEES
Christopher Abbott, Death of a Salesman
Danny Burstein, Marjorie Prime
Brandon J. Dirden, Waiting for Godot
Alden Ehrenreich, Becky Shaw
Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Richard Thomas, The Balusters
Will win: Alden Ehrenreich, Becky Shaw
Should win: Christopher Abbott, Death of a Salesman
Dirden was fantastic in Waiting for Godot—as was his Lucky scene partner Michael Patrick Thornton—but his nomination is the reward in one of the year’s tightest races. We give a slight edge to Alden Ehrenreich, who won the New York Drama Critics’ Circle Award for Best Individual Performance and would provide voters a way to honor the top-notch revival of Becky Shaw. But Christopher Abbott and Ruben Santiago-Hudson are very much in striking distance; any of them could take the statuette.
BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL
THE NOMINEES
Michael Arden, The Lost Boys
Lear deBessonet, Ragtime
Christopher Gattelli, Schmigadoon
Tim Jackson, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Will win: Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Should win: Michael Arden, The Lost Boys
The Lost Boys is unimaginable without Arden’s spectacular staging, but there is more enthusiasm overall for the musical revivals this year. Even if Ragtime wins Best Revival, the dynamic duo behind Cats: The Jellicle Ball deserves kudos. Levingston and Rauch created a radically joyful and imaginative rehaul of material that many people assumed had no more lives left in it; their work is a model of what an artistically ambitious revival can be.
BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY
THE NOMINEES
Nicholas Hytner, Giant
Robert Icke, Oedipus
Kenny Leon, The Balusters
Joe Mantello, Death of a Salesman
Whitney White, Liberation
Will win: Joe Mantello, Death of a Salesman
Should win: Joe Mantello, Death of a Salesman
Death of a Salesman is the production of the year, and that is largely due to Joe Mantello’s extraordinary direction. Though he is arguably the predominant Broadway play director of our time, Mantello hasn’t won a Tony since his back-to-back victories in 2003 and 2004. That dry spells ends now.
BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
THE NOMINEES
Christopher Gattelli, Schmigadoon
Ellenore Scott, Ragtime
Ani Taj, The Rocky Horror Show
Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Lauren Yalango-Grant and Christopher Cree Grant, The Lost Boys
Will win: Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Should win: Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Gattelli’s jubilant production numbers in Schmigadoon! would guarantee him the award in most seasons, but not this one: The thrilling dancing in Cats: The Jellicle Ball is the red-hot core of this revival’s reconception of the show’s feline friends as a queer ballroom community.
BEST ORCHESTRATIONS
THE NOMINEES
Doug Besterman and Mike Morris, Schmigadoon
Brian Usifer, Chess
Andrew Lloyd Webber, David Wilson, Trevor Holder and Doug Schadt, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Ethan Popp, Kyler England, Adrianne “AG” Gonzalez and Gabriel Mann, The Lost Boys
Lux Pyramid, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Will win: Andrew Lloyd Webber, David Wilson, Trevor Holder and Doug Schadt, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Should win: Doug Besterman and Mike Morris, Schmigadoon
Besterman and Morris’s old-school orchestrations play a pivotal role in shaping the musical landscape of Schmigadoon!‘s lovingly close parodies of yesteryear’s Broadway tuners.
BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
THE NOMINEES
dots, The Rocky Horror Show
Soutra Gilmour, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Rachel Hauck, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Dane Laffrey, The Lost Boys
Scott Pask, Schmigadoon!
Will win: Dane Laffrey, The Lost Boys
Should win: Dane Laffrey, The Lost Boys
This is another of the season’s easiest calls: Laffrey’s fruitful creative partnership with director Michael Arden won him a Tony last year for Maybe Happy Ending, and it is more or less 100% certain to do so again for his magnificent multitiered Lost Boys set.
BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A PLAY
THE NOMINEES
Hildegard Bechtler, Oedipus
Takeshi Kata, Bug
David Korins, Dog Day Afternoon
Chloe Lamford, Death of a Salesman
David Rockwell, Fallen Angels
Will win: David Korins, Dog Day Afternoon
Should win: Chloe Lamford, Death of a Salesman
Perpetual Tonys bridesmaid David Korins is long overdue for a win, and may get one for his perfectly executed 1970s bank in Dog Day Afternoon. But in this highly competitive race—which could go nearly any way—we give the slight edge to Chloe Lamford’s elegantly skeletal vision for Death of a Salesman.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
THE NOMINEES
Linda Cho, Ragtime
Linda Cho, Schmigadoon!
Qween Jean, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Ryan Park, The Lost Boys
David I. Reynoso, The Rocky Horror Show
Will win: Qween Jean, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Should win: Qween Jean, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Although it was a banner year for double nominee Linda Cho, it’s hard to imagine anything beating Qween Jean’s fabulous and explosively creative array of lewks in Cats, which earned her a Special Citation from the New York Drama Critics’ Circle this year.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A PLAY
THE NOMINEES
Brenda Abbandandolo, Dog Day Afternoon
Qween Jean, Liberation
Jeff Mahshie, Fallen Angels
Emilio Sosa, The Balusters
Paul Tazewell, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Will win: Jeff Mahshie, Fallen Angels
Should win: Paul Tazewell, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
It would be a delight to see force of culture Qween Jean win both of the costume categories this year, and her work in Liberation was essential to setting the historical scene (not to mention, in some cases, kick-ass cool). But something tells us this will be the category for voters to reward the much-loved Fallen Angels, in which Rose Byrne and Kelli O’Hara were gowned to the nines.
BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
THE NOMINEES
Kevin Adams, Chess
Jane Cox, The Rocky Horror Show
Donald Holder, Schmigadoon!
Adam Honoré, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Adam Honoré, Donald Holder and 59 Studio, Ragtime
Jen Schriever and Michael Arden, The Lost Boys
Will win: Jen Schriever and Michael Arden, The Lost Boys
Should win: Jen Schriever and Michael Arden, The Lost Boys
Honoré and Holder’s double nominations will have to hold them as honor enough; the atmosphere-sculpting lighting in The Lost Boys is nearly sure to win, earning Arden his third Tony in four years even if he doesn’t snag the prize for Best Director.
BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A PLAY
THE NOMINEES
Isabella Byrd, Dog Day Afternoon
Natasha Chivers, Oedipus
Stacey Derosier, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Heather Gilbert, Bug
Heather Gilbert, The Fear of 13
Jack Knowles, Death of a Salesman
Will win: Jack Knowles, Death of a Salesman
Should win: Jack Knowles, Death of a Salesman
Gilbert is another two-timer in this category—both for plays directed by David Cromer, in collaboration with whom she has also earned two previous noms—but Knowles’s beautiful work in Salesman should snare him his second consecutive Tony. (He won for Sunset Boulevard last year.)
BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
THE NOMINEES
Adam Fisher, The Lost Boys
Kai Harada, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Kai Harada, Ragtime
Brian Ronan, The Rocky Horror Show
Walter Trarbach, Schmigadoon
Will win: Kai Harada, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Should win: Adam Fisher, The Lost Boys
The battle between Ragtime and Cats is at its most intimate in the race for Best Sound: Kai Harada is nominated separately for both productions. If he pulls off a win, it will probably be for Cats (though the music in Ragtime sounds glorious). We suspect, however, that Harada will cancel himself out, leaving the win to Adam Fisher’s maximalist, concert-style design for The Lost Boys.
BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A PLAY
THE NOMINEES
Justin Ellington, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Tom Gibbons, Oedipus
Lee Kinney, Fear of 13
Josh Schmidt, Bug
Mikaal Sulaiman, Death of a Salesman
Will win: Mikaal Sulaiman, Death of a Salesman
Should win: Tom Gibbons, Oedipus
The Best Sound in a Play category is always among the hardest to call, since many voters don’t know what to listen for. Josh Schmidt’s work in Bug was central to the play’s creepy atmosphere, and Tom Gibbons also has a strong shot for Oedipus. But we’d bet on the Salesman train carrying Sulaiman to victory for his splendidly clear and layered design.
